Tuesday, November 20, 2012

On research and confidence (not intervals)

This year my research life has been a bit of a roller-coaster.  A little less than a year ago, my thesis research involved apply a reasonable-sounding methodology to an overarching question -- what sets the size of a hurricane? -- and on my first "try" in its application I basically got a beautiful and simple result.  In very generic and universal terms, all the dots lined up along straight lines, and those straight lines and slopes that made intuitive sense.

In the subsequent 9 months, I proceeded to question various aspects of the details of my research which ranged from the stupid (e.g. finding simulations where I never actually changed the one or two parameters that I thought had been changed), to the scientifically legitimate (e.g. why did I choose to represent this physical process in this way?).  This led me to, not once but twice, rerun all of my simulations.  The first time, I made a couple of simpler changes, but not long afterwards I realized that I had simply been lazy in implementing certain aspects of the simulations which probably don't matter, but it's impossible to know for sure.  Thus, I hunkered down and reran everything again, this time applying a much greater degree of quantitative precision in determining if I was happy with how I was doing things each step of the way.

Thus, by September, I finally, for the first time, felt good about my work: I was confident that the results I was getting were not tainted by small but easily avoidable errors in scientific judgment.  I also realized really for the first time how crucial personal responsibility is to doing good science -- after all, no one, not even your advisor, will ever know the details of how you reach the answers that you do.  Obviously in some fields this enables bad behavior such as scientific fraud. Often, though, such fraud can easily be blanketed over because "that's science".  However, it's plainly evident to me that "that's science" encompasses both legitimate and unavoidable human error as well as pure scientific negligence, and in most cases it is entirely up to the researcher and his/her code of ethics to determine to what extent the former is minimized and the latter is avoided.  Either way, at this stage in my scientific career, it became clear that if I want to do science that I can be proud of, I need to make sure its done right -- to the best that I can define it as so -- because no one else is going to decide that for me.

Nonetheless, since September I've been faced with a new set of scientific questions, namely why, after all of the changes that I made to make my simulations more scientifically valid, I was now getting results that were far messier (read: dots no longer so neatly aligned) than they were at the outset?

Consciously and subconsciously, I worried about this new problem but, because the overall results made sense (now for a variety of reasons), I in any case set about writing up a paper on my work.  I sent it to my advisor, who approved it with very minimal criticism.  Following a couple of additional points to address, I felt it was ready to submit to the top journal in our field.

Even then, my uneasiness continued and I still somehow felt unconvinced by my own results. Then, a couple of weeks ago, I found a systematic bias in my results.  I had no idea why, but this was a bit of a smoking gun that I cannot simply explain away the "noise" as noise.  After a day or so of complete freaking out -- my results are wrong, I shouldn't be a scientist etc. etc. -- I told myself that I was going to figure this out one way or another.  I could look more directly at my simulations and see plainly with my eyes that my fundamental conclusions were not wrong, which at the least restored some basic confidence in myself that I wasn't a complete idiot.

After a couple more days or intense thinking and a willingness finally to open up and complain/talk about this with my friends/colleagues, I realized something difficult but important: I was a victim of my own early success -- I really wanted to see the pretty result I got a year ago -- and what I needed to do was extricate my thought processes about this problem from the methodological approach that I have been using.  In other words, I needed to step back and ask: if I just showed up now, how would I approach the problem?

It turns out that, despite the fears of finding out you've done it wrong all along, a fresh start can do wonders.  I now see why it is that, for example, tech companies and grow and then fail, themselves doomed to never think outside of the very box that they built and that led to their success.

This past weekend, a flurry of insights and understanding came through, and it soon became clear that in fact my original answer was never wrong, but there simply was more going on than I had thought.  Importantly, I would not have realized this without having redone all of my simulations correctly, as it's clear that my initial results from one year ago got what had seemed to be the right answer (i.e. the simple one) likely out of sheer luck.

What might have been plausibly termed "human error" was in fact, in the most negative of respects, scientific negligence on my part.  Being lazy may obscure the signal you are looking for or, worse, accidentally lead you to either a signal that's not actually there or, in my case, a mis-interpretation of the answer.  Precision matters.

Ah, graduate school.  I suppose this is the learning experience that grad school is supposed to provide.  It can be harsh.  But it's obvious that such an experience depends a lot more on personal responsibility and self-confidence than I had ever imagined.

Thursday, November 15, 2012

Washington DC, James Bond, Dan Deacon

This past weekend I headed down to Washington DC to visit my two best friends from college.  It was a welcome getaway following what was an otherwise rather stressful week.  This is also the first time that I decided to head down to DC not for some work/conference related reason, but instead purely to visit friends and have fun.

In addition to significant amounts of imbibing, reveling, and board games (Forbidden Island, Dixit, Small World), one big highlight was our trip to the National Air and Space Museum annex in Virginia, where we caught the new James Bond movie, "Skyfall", in the museum's imax theatre.  This was exciting for me not only because I had never seen a regular movie in imax (I've only seen Planetarium-type films), but also because I believe I've only ever seen one Bond movie, Tomorrow Never Dies, which has a rather tame Pierce Brosnan as James Bond.  Now Bond is played by the much more convincingly-badass Daniel Craig.  Despite the need to suspend your disbelief in order to ignore many plot loopholes, the movie was incredibly entertaining.

On Tuesday night, a couple of friends and I headed down to the Paradise Rock Club to catch Dan Deacon.  He puts on a terrific show, including creating a human tunnel out the front door and back in a side door, as well as the use of a smart phone app that makes your phone flash certain colors based upon (presumably) certain frequencies that the microphone receives as input.  The result was a song where the audience was lighting up with all sorts of crazy colors as they danced and the band played.  What a fantastic idea.

Thursday, November 8, 2012

Life moves on

Today I began letting my close friends know that my girlfriend and I are breaking up.  Of course, now here I am telling the entire internet, but no one is reading this anyways so it's not that big of a deal.

In any case, it's a very clean break-up between us (other than that she lives in the apartment above me), but it is remarkable to think that it's been 3.5 years since we started dating.  To be fair, though, basically all of my time in grad school has absolutely flown by, particularly the last couple of years.  Right now I am a big mix of emotions, but mostly I just feel relief to start being open with others about this and finally getting to move on in a new direction in my life.

Alas, here we are: single and free again, and beginning to get excited about it.  It hasn't really sunk in yet, but having the freedom to pursue your ambitions is exciting and empowering.  It'll just take me a while to adjust -- I've spent the better part of the past couple of years ignoring/questioning these ambitions, so I need to remember what its like to dream big again.

It sounds sad, but I certainly have no regrets about anything.  Life is what it is -- there is no "right" path because whatever you do is what you experience and you learn from it, cherish the good times and change the bad.  Yet to appreciate the former, you need the latter all the same.

Crazy.  I'm ready for something new :)

Election 2012

I've spent too much time already soaking up the victories, statistics, punditry, and other aspects of the culmination of this year's election.  It's remarkable how much time, money, and effort goes into the fight, not only at the presidential level but also at the Congressional level and, surely, the state and local level -- though I don't really know much about such races myself.

After all is said and done, during President Obama's magnificent re-election acceptance speech, he provided this gem of a statement that, to me, should be one for the ages:


"That's why we do this. That's what politics can be. That's why elections matter. It's not small, it's big. It's important. Democracy in a nation of 300 million can be noisy and messy and complicated. We have our own opinions, each of us has deeply held beliefs. And when we go through tough times, when we make big decisions as a country, it necessarily stirs passions, stirs up controversy.

That won't change after tonight -- and it shouldn't. These arguments we have are a mark of our liberty. We can never forget that, as we speak, people in distant nations are risking their lives right now just for a chance to argue about the issues that matter."

Sunday, November 4, 2012

Ukulele Meetup

On Thursday evening, I jammed for the first time in my life.

Hosted by the Beacon Tavern in Brookline, I attended my first Ukulele Meetup.  I arrived about 10 minutes late, walked to the back of the pub and through a curtain to unveil a packed group of 30-40 ukulele players all playing together.

I headed for the back of the room, dropped my things and pulled out my uke.  My first instinct was to tune my instrument but realized that would be impossible with my microphone-based tuner on my phone.  But then it dawned on me: it doesn't matter.  And that's the beauty of this group, that one person being a little off, whether its in pitch or note, isn't a big deal.  Mathematically, I suppose it's the central limit theorem at play: with enough players, the mean pitch will probably be pretty close to correct.

We jammed over beers and fish tacos.  My intro ukulele class was well represented with I believe four of our members, which was pretty cool.  All in all, it was an absolutely wonderful environment for any music fan, but particularly for newbies like myself -- no pressure, mostly simple songs, lots of fun, and great people.

As our instructor said to me afterwards: "Ukulele players are just nice people."  I can't wait for next month's meetup.